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Recent progress in understanding Beaufort Gyre (BG) dynamics reveals an important role of ice‐ocean stress in stabilizing BG freshwater content (FWC) over seasonal to interannual timescales. But how the BG's stratification and FWC respond to surface forcing over decadal timescales has not been fully explored. Using a global ocean‐sea ice model, we partition the BG into upper, middle (halocline), and lower (thermocline) layers and perform a volume budget analysis over 1948–2017. We find that the BG's asymmetric geometry (with steep and tight isohalines over continental slopes relative to the deep basin) is key in determining the mean volume transport balance. We further find that a net Ekman suction during 1983–1995 causes the upper and middle layers to deflate isopycnally, while an enhanced Ekman pumping during 1996–2017 causes these layers to inflate both isopycnally and diapycnally, the latter via anomalous flux from the upper to the middle layer.

 

The Beaufort Gyre (BG), the largest Arctic Ocean freshwater reservoir, has drastically increased its liquid freshwater content by 40% in the past two decades. If released within a short period, the excess freshwater could potentially impact the large-scale ocean circulation by freshening the upper subpolar North Atlantic. Here, we track BG-sourced freshwater using passive tracers in a global ocean sea-ice model and show that this freshwater exited the Arctic mostly through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, rather than Fram Strait, during an historical release event in 1983–1995. The Labrador Sea is the most affected region in the subpolar North Atlantic, with a freshening of 0.2 psu on the western shelves and 0.4 psu in the Labrador Current. Given that the present BG freshwater content anomaly is twice the historical analog studied here, the impact of a future rapid release on Labrador Sea salinity could be significant, easily exceeding similar fluxes from Greenland meltwater.

 

Abstract As the greenhouse gas concentrations increase, a warmer climate is expected. However, numerous internal climate processes can modulate the primary radiative warming response of the climate system to rising greenhouse gas forcing. Here the particular internal climate process that we focus on is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), an important global-scale feature of ocean circulation that serves to transport heat and other scalars, and we address the question of how the mean strength of AMOC can modulate the transient climate response. While the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SM1) have very similar equilibrium/effective climate sensitivity, our analysis suggests that a weaker AMOC contributes in part to the higher transient climate response to a rising greenhouse gas forcing seen in E3SM1 by permitting a faster warming of the upper ocean and a concomitant slower warming of the subsurface ocean. Likewise the stronger AMOC in CESM2 by permitting a slower warming of the upper ocean leads in part to a smaller transient climate response. Thus, while the mean strength of AMOC does not affect the equilibrium/effective climate sensitivity, it is likely to play an important role in determining the transient climate response on the centennial time scale. 

We use a modern Earth system model to approximate the relative importance of ice versus temperature on Arctic marine ecosystem dynamics. We show that while the model adequately simulates ice volume, water temperature, air‐sea CO₂flux, and annual primary production in the Arctic, itunderestimates upper water column nitrate across the region. This nitrate bias is likely responsible for the apparent underestimation of ice algae production. Despite this shortcoming, the model appears to be a useful tool for exploring the impacts of environmental change on phytoplankton production and carbon dynamics over the Arctic Ocean. Our experiments indicate that under a warmer climate scenario, the percentage of ocean warming that could be apportioned to a reduction in ice area ranged from 11% to 100%, while decreasing ice area could account for 22–100% of the increase in annual ocean primary production. The change to CO₂air‐sea flux in response to ice and temperature changes averaged an Arctic‐wide 5.5 Tg C yr⁻¹(3.5%) increase, into the ocean. This increased carbon sink may be short‐lived, as ice cover continues to decrease and the ocean warms. The change in carbon fixation from phytoplankton in response to increased temperatures and reduced ice was generally more than a magnitude larger than the changes to CO₂flux, highlighting the importance of fully considering changes to the marine ecosystem when assessing Arctic carbon cycle dynamics. Our work demonstrates the importance of ice dynamics in controlling ocean warming and production and thus the need for well‐behaved ice and BGC models within Earth system models if we hope to accurately predict Arctic changes.